Investigating five key predictive text entry with combined distance and keystroke modelling

This paper investigates text entry on mobile devices using only five-keys. Primarily to support text entry on smaller devices than mobile phones, this method can also be used to maximise screen space on mobile phones. Reported combined Fitt's law and keystroke modelling predicts similar performance with bigram prediction using a five-key keypad as is currently achieved on standard mobile phones using unigram prediction. User studies reported here show similar user performance on five-key pads as found elsewhere for novice nine-key pad users

Prior exercise does not affect chylomicron particle number following a mixed meal of moderate fat content

BACKGROUND: A single session of exercise has been reported to reduce fasting and postprandial triacylglycerol concentrations on the subsequent day. It is possible that exercise also reduces chylomicron particle number, which may underlie the observed reduction in postprandial triacylglycerol concentration. In the present study we aimed to determine whether a single session of exercise reduces fasting and postprandial chylomicron particle number on the subsequent day. In a randomised crossover design eight lean and healthy male and female subjects attended two postprandial testing days. On the previous day the subjects either performed 90 minutes of moderate intensity exercise or did not perform any exercise. Fasting blood samples were then collected prior to ingestion of a moderate fat mixed meal (0.44 g fat, 0.94 g carbohydrate, 0.27 g protein/kg body weight), blood was then collected after 1 h, 2 h, 4 h, 6 h, and 8 h. RESULTS: The fasting and postprandial apolipoprotein B48 concentration (marker of chylomicron particle number) was not affected by prior exercise. However exercise reduced fasting triacylglycerol concentration by 16% (P < 0.05) and there was a trend towards a reduction in the total area under the postprandial triacylglycerol curve (23%; P = 0.053). However when corrected for baseline concentration postprandial triacylglycerol concentration was not affected by prior exercise. CONCLUSION: A single session of exercise of moderate intensity and 90 minutes duration reduces fasting triacylglycerol levels, however fasting and postprandial chylomicron particle number was unaffected. Furthermore it appears that previously observed reductions in postprandial triacylglycerol levels following exercise are only mediated following consumption of high, non-physiologically relevant doses of fat

Arterial oxygen content is precisely maintained by graded erythrocytotic responses in settings of high/normal serum iron levels, and predicts exercise capacity: an observational study of hypoxaemic patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations.

Oxygen, haemoglobin and cardiac output are integrated components of oxygen transport: each gram of haemoglobin transports 1.34 mls of oxygen in the blood. Low arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), and haemoglobin saturation (SaO2), are the indices used in clinical assessments, and usually result from low inspired oxygen concentrations, or alveolar/airways disease. Our objective was to examine low blood oxygen/haemoglobin relationships in chronically compensated states without concurrent hypoxic pulmonary vasoreactivity.165 consecutive unselected patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations were studied, in 98 cases, pre/post embolisation treatment. 159 (96%) had hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia. Arterial oxygen content was calculated by SaO2 x haemoglobin x 1.34/100.There was wide variation in SaO2 on air (78.5-99, median 95)% but due to secondary erythrocytosis and resultant polycythaemia, SaO2 explained only 0.1% of the variance in arterial oxygen content per unit blood volume. Secondary erythrocytosis was achievable with low iron stores, but only if serum iron was high-normal: Low serum iron levels were associated with reduced haemoglobin per erythrocyte, and overall arterial oxygen content was lower in iron deficient patients (median 16.0 [IQR 14.9, 17.4]mls/dL compared to 18.8 [IQR 17.4, 20.1]mls/dL, p<0.0001). Exercise tolerance appeared unrelated to SaO2 but was significantly worse in patients with lower oxygen content (p<0.0001). A pre-defined athletic group had higher Hb:SaO2 and serum iron:ferritin ratios than non-athletes with normal exercise capacity. PAVM embolisation increased SaO2, but arterial oxygen content was precisely restored by a subsequent fall in haemoglobin: 86 (87.8%) patients reported no change in exercise tolerance at post-embolisation follow-up.Haemoglobin and oxygen measurements in isolation do not indicate the more physiologically relevant oxygen content per unit blood volume. This can be maintained for SaO2 ≥78.5%, and resets to the same arterial oxygen content after correction of hypoxaemia. Serum iron concentrations, not ferritin, seem to predict more successful polycythaemic responses

Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

Ischaemic strokes in patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia: associations with iron deficiency and platelets.

<div><p>Background</p><p>Pulmonary first pass filtration of particles marginally exceeding ∼7 µm (the size of a red blood cell) is used routinely in diagnostics, and allows cellular aggregates forming or entering the circulation in the preceding cardiac cycle to lodge safely in pulmonary capillaries/arterioles. Pulmonary arteriovenous malformations compromise capillary bed filtration, and are commonly associated with ischaemic stroke. Cohorts with CT-scan evident malformations associated with the highest contrast echocardiographic shunt grades are known to be at higher stroke risk. Our goal was to identify within this broad grouping, which patients were at higher risk of stroke.</p><p>Methodology</p><p>497 consecutive patients with CT-proven pulmonary arteriovenous malformations due to hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia were studied. Relationships with radiologically-confirmed clinical ischaemic stroke were examined using logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic analyses, and platelet studies.</p><p>Principal Findings</p><p>Sixty-one individuals (12.3%) had acute, non-iatrogenic ischaemic clinical strokes at a median age of 52 (IQR 41–63) years. In crude and age-adjusted logistic regression, stroke risk was associated not with venous thromboemboli or conventional neurovascular risk factors, but with low serum iron (adjusted odds ratio 0.96 [95% confidence intervals 0.92, 1.00]), and more weakly with low oxygen saturations reflecting a larger right-to-left shunt (adjusted OR 0.96 [0.92, 1.01]). For the same pulmonary arteriovenous malformations, the stroke risk would approximately double with serum iron 6 µmol/L compared to mid-normal range (7–27 µmol/L). Platelet studies confirmed overlooked data that iron deficiency is associated with exuberant platelet aggregation to serotonin (5HT), correcting following iron treatment. By MANOVA, adjusting for participant and 5HT, iron or ferritin explained 14% of the variance in log-transformed aggregation-rate (p = 0.039/p = 0.021).</p><p>Significance</p><p>These data suggest that patients with compromised pulmonary capillary filtration due to pulmonary arteriovenous malformations are at increased risk of ischaemic stroke if they are iron deficient, and that mechanisms are likely to include enhanced aggregation of circulating platelets.</p></div

Macrosystems ecology: Understanding ecological patterns and processes at continental scales

Macrosystems ecology is the study of diverse ecological phenomena at the scale of regions to continents and their interactions with phenomena at other scales. This emerging subdiscipline addresses ecological questions and environmental problems at these broad scales. Here, we describe this new field, show how it relates to modern ecological study, and highlight opportunities that stem from taking a macrosystems perspective. We present a hierarchical framework for investigating macrosystems at any level of ecological organization and in relation to broader and finer scales. Building on well-established theory and concepts from other subdisciplines of ecology, we identify feedbacks, linkages among distant regions, and interactions that cross scales of space and time as the most likely sources of unexpected and novel behaviors in macrosystems. We present three examples that highlight the importance of this multiscaled systems perspective for understanding the ecology of regions to continents

Men’s Physical Activity and Sleep Following a Workplace Health Intervention: Findings from the POWERPLAY STEP Up challenge

The workplace provides an important delivery point for health promotion, yet many programs fail to engage men. A gender-sensitive 8-week team challenge-based intervention targeting increased physical activity was delivered at a petrochemical worksite. The purpose of this study was to examine men’s pre–post physical activity and sleep following the intervention, as well as to explore program acceptability and gather men’s recommendations for health promotion. Pre–post surveys assessed physical activity, sleep, program exposure, acceptability, and suggestions for continued support. Overall, 328 men completed baseline surveys and 186 (57%) completed follow-up surveys. Walking increased by 156.5 min/week, 95% confidence interval (61.2, 251.8), p = .001. Men with higher program exposure increased moderate and vigorous activity 49.4 min more than those with low exposure (p = .026). Sleep duration and quality were higher postintervention, though changes were modest. Program acceptability was high as was intention to maintain physical activity. Men’s suggestions to enable physical activity involved workplace practices/resources, reducing workload, and leadership support. These findings suggest that a gender-sensitive physical activity workplace intervention showed promise for improving physical activity and sleep among men. The men’s suggestions reflected workplace health promotion strategies, reinforcing the need for employers to support ongoing health promotion efforts

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. Conclusion Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability

Awe and Wonder in Scientific Practice: Implications for the Relationship Between Science and Religion

This paper examines the role of awe and wonder in scientific practice. Drawing on evidence from psychological research and the writings of scientists and science communicators, I argue that awe and wonder play a crucial role in scientific discovery. They focus our attention on the natural world, encourage open-mindedness, diminish the self (particularly feelings of self-importance), help to accord value to the objects that are being studied, and provide a mode of understanding in the absence of full knowledge. I will flesh out implications of the role of awe and wonder in scientific discovery for debates on the relationship between science and religion. Abraham Heschel argued that awe and wonder are religious emotions because they reduce our feelings of self-importance, and thereby help to cultivate the proper reverent attitude towards God. Yet metaphysical naturalists such as Richard Dawkins insist that awe and wonder need not lead to any theistic commitments for scientists. The awe some scientists experience can be regarded as a form of non-theistic spirituality, which is neither a reductive naturalism nor theism. I will attempt to resolve the tension between these views by identifying some common ground

Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 and 2 predict outcomes in advanced chronic kidney disease : a prospective cohort study

Background : Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 (sTNFR1) and 2 (sTNFR2) have been associated to progression of renal failure, end stage renal disease and mortality in early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD), mostly in the context of diabetic nephropathy. The predictive value of these markers in advanced stages of CKD irrespective of the specific causes of kidney disease has not yet been defined. In this study, the relationship between sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 and the risk for adverse cardiovascular events (CVE) and all-cause mortality was investigated in a population with CKD stage 4-5, not yet on dialysis, to minimize the confounding by renal function. Patients and methods : In 131 patients, CKD stage 4-5, sTNFR1, sTNFR2 were analysed for their association to a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or first non-fatal CVE by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. In the multivariate models, age, gender, CRP, eGFR and significant comorbidities were included as covariates. Results : During a median follow-up of 33 months, 40 events (30.5%) occurred of which 29 deaths (22.1%) and 11 (8.4%) first non-fatal CVE. In univariate analysis, the hazard ratios (HR) of sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 for negative outcome were 1.49 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28-1.75) and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.06-1.20) respectively. After adjustment for clinical covariables (age, CRP, diabetes and a history of cardiovascular disease) both sTNFRs remained independently associated to outcomes (HR: sTNFR1: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.30-1.77; sTNFR2: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.20). A subanalysis of the non-diabetic patients in the study population confirmed these findings, especially for sTNFR1. Conclusion : sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are independently associated to all-cause mortality or an increased risk for cardiovascular events in advanced CKD irrespective of the cause of kidney disease